The spending cuts made by the chancellor, George Osborne, in this week's budget could cause up to 38,000 extra deaths over the next decade, according to academic research published tomorrow.
Reductions in welfare payments and the 25% cut in spending across many government departments could lead to an increase in heart attacks and alcohol-related illnesses, according to analysis produced exclusively for the Guardian by an epidemiologist at Oxford University.
David Stuckler warns that the announced reduction in overall support for the long-term unemployed, disabled people and families and children, might severely impact people's health, or even cost them their lives.
"There is a real danger that these cuts will severely impact people's health and, in some cases, could even cost them their lives," he said.
The numbers are based on mathematical models published in the British Medical Journal tomorrow. Led by Stuckler, this study is the first to investigate the effects of budget cuts on public health.
Osborne described his austerity measures as "tough but fair".
Researchers collected statistics from 15 European countries, including Denmark and France, for the years 1980 to 2005. They found each £80 cut in social welfare spending per person would push up alcohol-related deaths by about 2.8% and cardiovascular mortality by 1.2%. Even modest cuts, the study concludes, could harm public health.
The coalition government has promised it will not reduce spending on the NHS – yet the authors of the study warn that spending on social welfare has a bigger impact on people's health than spending on the sick. The BMJ study indicates welfare programmes are an important means of ensuring people do not fall ill in the first place.
Putting Osborne's measures through a mathematical model, Stuckler found they could cause between 6,500 and 38,000 extra deaths over the next 10 years – at a conservative estimate. He warned the figures could rise sharply if the economy deteriorated. Conversely, the government could also minimise the damage to health, depending on its choices in this autumn's comprehensive spending review, which will set how much each department must cut over the next few years.
Cutting spending on the military and prisons and other non-welfare projects does not harm the public's health, the BMJ study finds. The austerity measures announced this week, were described by Stuckler as " a double whammy for public health" during an historic economic crisis. Big and rapid economic changes can in themselves harm people's health – and the study indicates that the effect is compounded by sudden, sharp spending cuts. "At the time when people need help from their government the most, their social supports and protection are being wiped away," Stuckler said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jun/25/budget-mortality-rate-warning
PDF version
Despite having been on the political agenda for a decade, child and adult poverty is rising. But what is poverty? Do current definitions and measurements capture its impact onchildren and the adults who care for them? This radical new analysis considers the impact poverty has on children’s lives. It shows that, while lack of income is an important aspect of poverty, it is about much more. Poverty is about stress, poor housing, lack of facilities, inadequate infrastructure, fear of crime and problems associated with living in a deprived area. Poverty not only prevents people from buying the things they need, it also them fulfilling personal ambitions and exploiting opportunities. It generates poor physical and mental health, and absorbs the time and resources required for social and political engagement.
Coping with Complexity argues that current definitions, models and measurements do not reflect the dynamic, multi-dimensional nature of poverty. Nor do they capture the impact of adult poverty on children’s wellbeing in the here and now. The measurements often conflict, with a person measured as poor on one index and not on another. Coping with Complexity addresses these limitations, presenting an exciting new model to help us understand poverty’s various dimensions, and calls for the same techniques to be used to improve policies.
Coping with Complexity identifies fundamental problems with a government strategy that has failed to confront the various interlinked causes and consequences of poverty. A tendency to tackle single causes and specific outcomes has generated poorly targeted and ineffectual policies, which over-emphasise employment as the principal antidote to poverty. Coping with Complexity is essential reading for researchers and policymakers – and for the Government. It calls for a much more holistic approach that addresses the different aspects of poverty and their impact on the lives of children. It provides a radical and re-energised approach, which, if implemented, would have an immediate impact on the 3.9 million children currently living in poverty in Britain.
(Reuters) - Radical cuts in social welfare spending by governments intent on reducing budget deficits can cost lives as well as cause economic pain, according to a study published on Friday.
UK
British researchers found that levels of social spending in Europe are strongly associated with risks of premature death, particularly from diseases linked to wealth and social circumstances such as heart attacks and alcohol-related illness.
In a study published in the British Medical Journal, the researchers calculated that for approximately every 80 euros ($107) cut from social welfare spending per person, alcohol-related deaths would rise by about 2.8 percent and heart disease deaths by around 1.2 percent.
The global recession and financial crisis have driven many governments in Europe to make drastic budget cuts to try to reduce ballooning deficits.
Some, like Britain, have ring-fenced health spending with a view to keeping voters on their side. But the study suggested that while such governments may think they are safeguarding the population's health by protecting healthcare budgets, they may be ignoring the health dangers implicit in welfare cuts.
"This report reveals that ordinary people may be paying the ultimate price for budget cuts -- potentially costing them their lives," the authors, led by sociologist David Stuckler from the Oxford University, wrote in the study.
Heart disease is already the number one killer in Europe, the United States and other wealthy nations, while alcohol-related illnesses rank at number eight in the World Health Organisation's top 10 leading causes of death worldwide.
Previous studies have found that in developed nations, both heart disease and alcohol-related health problems are more prevalent among people in deprived communities.
Stuckler's team looked at Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data on welfare spending in 15 European countries between 1980 to 2005.
These included programmes to provide support to families and children, to help the unemployed get jobs, and support for people with disabilities -- all of which could plausibly affect health, the researchers explained.
Analysing trends in the data, they found that when social spending was high, death rates fell, but when they were low, death rates rose substantially.
"Health and social welfare programmes appear to be a key determinant of future population health that should be taken into account in ongoing economic debates," Stuckler wrote.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE65N6PF20100624